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Bot Betting Edge

The Blog

This blog will contain my reflections and progress within the field of modelling and predicting sports probabilities, especially for soccer matches inplay. Although placing bets on different matches I don't consider myself as a bettor, I see myself as an investor placing money where I have edge and finds value. Sports betting is fantastic!

Matched sums in different leagues?

Analysis Posted on Tue, May 17, 2016 22:15:41

In my models I use different type of classifications for both teams and leagues. One interesting way to look at leagues are how interesting they seem to be to Betfair costumers. One way to check this is by calculating the average matched sum per event and match.

The average is calculated from 2015 and 2016 data, and the top 25 leagues/events are:

The average matched is in SEK. The Premier League stands out as the number one preferred betting markets with an average matched 44.5 MSEK per match on the Match Odds market. That is more than twice the amount in Primera Division and four times Serie A!

The Community Shield is the match between Arsenal and Chelsea held on 2.august 2015 (won by Arsenal with 1-0 by the way).

Especially the Scandinavian markets are interesting for me, and the top3 there are:

Result 2016-04

Betting result Posted on Tue, May 17, 2016 21:08:48

And these are the betting results with april included:

There was a massive raise in number of bets (1351), unfortunately the ROI was -0.9% which ended up with a loss if 4850 SEK.

Two months with negative results made me make some bigger adjustments in my model, implemented from 16 may. I hope to see some improvements during the next months 🙂

When breaking down the result on back type:

Based on those figures I have left Home and Draw unchanged, and focused on improving Away and Under.

A last note, if you compare number of bets with previous shown results you will see that they don’t match. This is due to an error counting number of unique bets.