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Bot Betting Edge

The Blog

This blog will contain my reflections and progress within the field of modelling and predicting sports probabilities, especially for soccer matches inplay. Although placing bets on different matches I don't consider myself as a bettor, I see myself as an investor placing money where I have edge and finds value. Sports betting is fantastic!

Result 2016-06

Betting result Posted on Tue, July 12, 2016 22:02:37


Finally the Euro Championship is over – The Swedish team did not deliver to good. I hoped for more but did not really expect anything. It is now time for players like Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Kim Kรคllstrรถm and Andreas Isaksson to leave the national team and the process starts to build a new and younger team. It feels good to get a new start…

The results are now updated with June data:

It was a good month, although the low number of bets (486) the yield landed at 3.4% which gave me 6266 SEK into my account (about 661 Euro).

As I mentioned in last post I made some adjustments on the 12:th of may, and they seem to deliver.

The results, by bet type, with data from 12 of May to 10 of July looks like:

I am especially glad that backing Away and Under now is in profit – Something I have struggled with for a long time. I am still using a smaller bet size for those types, I will upsize the bets gradually over the nearest half year IF the good results lasts.

Result 2016-05

Betting result Posted on Tue, June 14, 2016 21:22:04

Finally the Euro Championship 2016 has started, yesterday Sweden managed to get 1-1 against Ireland BY PURE LUCK. A big Disappointment, I really hope that the Swedish team can get it together for the match against Italy on Friday.

Now for the results updated with May:

984 bets executed, and the model turned the bad trend from March and April into a small profit of 1012 SEK (equivalent to 0.3 % ROI).

Breaking it down in back type:

The away and under betting is still in loosing figures, but when examining the effects of changes made in 12:th of may:

We see positive ROI on all types, even if the sample size is quite small I embrace the positive vibes ๐Ÿ™‚

Result 2016-04

Betting result Posted on Tue, May 17, 2016 21:08:48

And these are the betting results with april included:

There was a massive raise in number of bets (1351), unfortunately the ROI was -0.9% which ended up with a loss if 4850 SEK.

Two months with negative results made me make some bigger adjustments in my model, implemented from 16 may. I hope to see some improvements during the next months ๐Ÿ™‚

When breaking down the result on back type:

Based on those figures I have left Home and Draw unchanged, and focused on improving Away and Under.

A last note, if you compare number of bets with previous shown results you will see that they don’t match. This is due to an error counting number of unique bets.

Result 2016-03

Betting result Posted on Mon, April 11, 2016 09:49:16

And here are the results for March :

Oh no! March ended up with a loss of 1460 SEK … So summing up the first quarter of 2016 we see:

1. total turn of 1 264 598 SEK, that’s approximately 136 406 Euros.

2. 2 751 unike markets were bet on, out of 55 499 followed. That is a hitrate of 5 %.

3. ROI of 0.8 %, and normalised ROI at 1.5%.

The turnover is inline with my expectations, but the ROI of 0.8 % is too low (my target is 1.5%).

breaking it down on back type:

Its especially when backing away teams that the model struggles… So for the 2:nd quarter I have made som adjustments to that model.

I have also med a general modification to the betting rules, I now demand the market to be a little bit more effective than I did earlier. There seem to be some bad bets originating from (probably) slow score updating. I think this adjustment will partly handle that problem.

The difference between ROI and normalised ROI is something that I will need to do some more thinking about ๐Ÿ™‚ There are two issues when following the ROI:

1. How much of my requested amount is actually matched?

If I request 1000 SEK and only get matched for 100 SEK – That will skew up the evaluation of the model.

2. How much do I request?

Depending on market type I request either 2% or 3% of my portfolio. That means that a later loss (given that the model is long term profitable) induces a higher blow to the ROI than a loss in the start.

So evaluating model in terms of normalised ROI its doing fine….

Just trying to put some data together (I will follow up on this subject later on!):

Result 2016-02

Betting result Posted on Tue, March 15, 2016 21:03:43

And here are the results from betting in Februar:

This month generated approximately the same amount of bets, but as my portfolio is bigger I had an increase in average bet size and therefor also the total amount bet (435′ vs 322′ in Januar).

I managed to make a profit for the second month in a row in 2016 (!). The ROI ended up as 0.4 %, so total for the year is a ROI of 1.5% (from my previous post we can draw the conclusion that the strategy now is performing according to its expectation regarding ROI…. ).

Breaking this years result on type of bets:

We see that backing away teams has had a hard time… i will eventually start to look for some way to twerk that strategy into profit.

Result 2016-01

Betting result Posted on Fri, February 12, 2016 10:17:49


2016 started best possible way:

I managed to get matched in 820 unique markets, turned 322576 SEK (approx. 33875 EUROS) which ended up in a profit of 9516 SEK (approx. 999 EUROS). This equals a ROI of 2.9 %, which is far above my long term target (1.5%). A good start makes it easier to stay with my models even on a rainy day.

When splitting these results down to back type (1,X,2,O/U):

The only problem sign right now is when backing the away team, 0.1 % is to low although the normalised ROI implies that I had some bad luck. The exposure is also to low to act on.

Last year february was a real poor month for me, since then there have been many improvements (and disimprovements…) on the model so if I at least can make a break even in february then I am ahead of 2015 results.

Result 2015, total

Betting result Posted on Wed, January 13, 2016 10:26:25

2015 wrap up!

Another year passed by and there have been quite much development on the bot, and improvement on the model.

To sum it up: The model executed 6754 bets that were fully or partial matched. Of the 10 months that the bot ran, there were only one loosing month. A total ROI of 0.7%, 2.4 MSEK turned and 16 000 SEK won.

So what do I hope for 2016? Its not of any value to have financial goals, I will just try to improve the model, bot and risk management as much as possible and hope for the best…

But walking into 2016 with much better starting point than in 2015, a reasonable guess would be to turn at least 4 MSEK, and reach a ROI of 1 %. If that’s the case it would mean a profit around 40000 SEK.

So happy 2016 and lets kick some ass at Betfair ๐Ÿ™‚

Result 2015 march – july

Betting result Posted on Sat, August 29, 2015 12:52:40

Here comes the results with July data:

As you can see July was pretty slow with only 384 bets. 0.3% in ROI gave me a whopping 500 SEK ๐Ÿ™‚ Thats about 50 Euros.

The underlying ROI is on 1.9%, this indicates that I have had some bad luck. Comparing to May the underlying ROI was also 1.9% but I managed to squeeze out 1.6% in real ROI.

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